Looking Back on Pie’s 2011 Predictions


image I have been busy these past few months. How busy? Just look at my post rate. It hasn’t been for lack of topics, I’ve just been burning the candle at both ends.

Well, I’ve been on “vacation” for the past week and feel rested enough to take some time to write. Coincidently enough, I have two posts to write quickly, the first being this post evaluating the predictions for 2011.

As I did for the 2010 predictions, I am going to score them as either correct, incorrect, or partial (50%).  The partial is for predictions that were correct in the causes, but the effects were off.

    1. There will be a major acquisition that doesn’t involve Open Text. Correct! HP acquired Autonomy in one of the strangest and largest acquisitions in the past few years.
    2. EMC will determine their Content Management future this year. Correct. They have a plan for the future that they have been executing upon consistently. It is the Next Generation Information Server along with EMC OnDemand. When you throw in the mew mobile client and the addition of the D2 interface from C6, EMC is saying that they aren’t going to be marginalized without a fight. The question of whether it is enough and in time is something we should learn in 2012.
    3. “Enterprise 2.0” vendors will be reclassified. Partial. The theory is that people would using Enterprise 2.0 and start referring to tools by what they did. This is happening, but it is gradual. Too many marketing people aren’t ready to let go of the term yet. I feel I got this partially right but it is hard to prove.
    4. Content Management in the Cloud will make a big splash.  Correct. Box is attacking the world while Nuxeo and Alfresco have jumped into the fray. EMC is working to provide a true cloud solution and DropBox has begun creating a non-consumer version of its product. I’ve been spending a lot of time working on a project to implement Documentum in an IaaS cloud provider for the Federal Government. The cloud has reached the CMS world and will only expand and mature.
    5. Peter Monks will try to blackmail me. Correct, though he isn’t very good at it. You would think a recording of singing karaoke while wearing a mullet would be enough, but he can’t pull it off.
    6. An iPad challenger will emerge, driving the tablet market. Partial. Instead of one challenger, there are lots of them. Samsung seems to be doing okay but the Kindle Fire seems to have the best shot at challenging the iPad.
    7. eBook weaknesses will come to the forefront.  Correct, though I picked the wrong weaknesses. People just want more from their eReader. Just ask Amazon why they introduced the Kindle Fire, a simplified Android tablet. It isn’t an eReader in the traditional sense, yet it is doing well. My niece has one and she lives in an Apple family.

So that is a 6 out of 7. Not bad overall, especially when you consider that I graded fairly harsh. Apple is not the only tablet player in town anymore and the term Enterprise 2.0 seems to be in remission even according to Google.

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That bump over 1.0 line, point “F”? That’s the Enterprise 2.0 conference. Social Buness seems to be picking-up the slack, which is a much better descriptor of many of the products. Spigit, a stalwart of many Enterprise 2.0 conferences seems to ignore both terms.

Now, onward to 2012!

2 thoughts on “Looking Back on Pie’s 2011 Predictions

  1. I think no iPad challengers emerged, I would not give you a “partial” 🙂
    the Fire opened a new lower-end segment, which is almost more about eReaders but the iPad might have generated many challenger attempts none of them really emerged and the iPad seems as dominating as it was a year ago… Just my quick comment going through this classical entertaining read of early january…

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    • Fair comment. I think the Kindle Fire is a challenger and has the potential to make people realize that their are choices other than Apple. If I hadn’t seen my niece holding a Kindle at the end of the year, I would have failed. Given how much my brother loves Apple stuff, I think it shows the entry into the mind-share.

      The key here is that by 12/31, while iPad was the default choice, lots of people looking at acquiring tablets were looking at more than Apple. Given that that was the core of the prediction, I thought the partial was warranted.

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