Reflecting on Pie’s 2010 Predictions


Last year I succumbed to the pressure of being one of the only bloggers to NOT have predictions for 2010.  So on the last day of the year, I threw together a post with some predictions.

As a side effect, I have to evaluate them now.  I am going to score them as either correct, incorrect, or partial (50%).  The partial is for predictions that were correct in the causes, but the effects were off.

So, let’s dive into the juicy goodness.

  1. Constantly Hyping Acronyms Of Systems: Correct.  Web Engagement Management (WEM) is all the support I need.  Web Delivery System is another one I saw out there.  AIIM just introduced Systems of Record and Systems of Engagement as terms, though not as concepts.  Actually, any year that this prediction doesn’t come true would be a big surprise.
  2. SharePoint 2010 Won’t Matter: Partial.  If you read the description, my point was that there wouldn’t have been a large number of upgrades.  That has largely held true.  New customers are adopting it and there is a lot of interest, but MOSS 2007 is still the leader.  It was a bigger deal than I thought, so I am only giving partial credit.  Feel free to dispute.
  3. 2010 Will Not be the Year of CMIS: Correct.  After its completion, there has been steady progress, but it has been quiet.  Look at my blog if you want evidence.  2011 will be a much bigger year for CMIS.
  4. Google Wave Gets More Hype: Partial. There was some hype, then it was killed.  As predicted, the 1st generation UI was no good.  When combined with its resurrection as an open source project under Apache. There hasn’t been a new UI, but the fact that not enough people could find something to do with it, even when invites were plentiful is enough for partial.
  5. Records Management and Enterprise 2.0 Will Collide: Partial. The recent AIIM research talks about this, but they call it Systems of Record and Systems of Engagement.  There hasn’t been a large 2.0 scandal, though the Wikileaks thing is quite interesting. The spirit of the prediction was missed, so I demote.  Almost made this one Correct.
  6. The Kindle and Nook Will Die: Correct. Did you notice the iPad?  When you look at my prediction, and the intense debate in the comments, it is clear that this one was aimed at replacing the eReaders.  eReaders will survive, but they are already well on their way to being  just a niche product in the market.  Before the iPad, people always showed my their Kindle. Afterwards, not one person showed it off.  I’m definitely not seeing significantly more Kindles than I did before the iPad’s release.  The iPad is constantly seen everywhere.  The fact that Amazon refuses to share the number of Kindles sold reinforces my belief.  Then again, if Amazon’s ultimate goal is to sell e-books, do they really care about the device?
  7. The Cloud will Remain a Fog: Correct.  There is still a lot of confusion around the cloud.  When I asked Tony Byrne which cloud technology would most impact Content Management, even he said he was just making a guess (though a Tony guess is very valuable).  This should improve next year, but it won’t be like flipping a switch.
  8. Open Text will Make a Major Acquisition: Correct. They acquired Burntsand and Nstein.  The latter qualifies.  Autonomy made the biggest splash by acquiring Interwoven though.  As I didn’t say someone else would make a bigger acquisition, no penalty.

Wow! I did better than I thought.  6.5 out of 8!  The eReader one could easily be a Partial, but I like to stir the pot a bit.  Besides, the SP2010 prediction could have been rated higher.  Even switching that to a partial would still give me 75% which is a passing grade.

You know, I may be inspired enough to try again for 2011.  Now I just need to think of some predictions.  Trends are easy, but figuring out when they are going to come to a head, challenging.

4 thoughts on “Reflecting on Pie’s 2010 Predictions

  1. Ok, I’ll bite. I own an iPad and a Kindle. I’m showing them both :), but my Kindle usually stays at home and the iPad travels with me. So I get to show them to different audiences.
    I really like both of them and in the recent week I think I convinced one person to get an iPad and one a Kindle.

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    • I used to see the Kindle a lot, now it is the iPad. I’ll be hitting mass transit a lot this week and I’ll be looking around for a comparison. Kindle still has a place, but it is going to be a sub-market.

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