Predictions of Pie for 2011


image Well, I’m doing it again, making predictions for the next year.  The sad thing is that I am even more cynical about making predictions this year than last.  That is why I wrote an article for CMS Wire on Trends for 2011.  I’m confident on trends but it is hard to determine if a trend will result in anything measureable.

Well, here we go.  A list of predictions, and things to watch, in 2011.

  1. There will be a major acquisition that doesn’t involve Open Text. This isn’t to say Open Text won’t acquire someone big, but that there will be another acquisition that will be major.  It will likely involve one of the newer kids, founded 2005+, or EMC.
  2. EMC will determine their Content Management future this year. This is a turning-point year for EMC.  After taking a little bit of abuse here, they started to right the ship and point in the needed direction.  Was it in time?  Will EMC give up on Content Management and just sell it?  Will the path to the future not be given the necessary focus or just dropped?  This year will have the answers.  By December, I’ll know if we will be talking about EMC as a Content Management leader in 2014.
  3. “Enterprise 2.0” vendors will be reclassified. Organizations are going to realize that the Enterprise 2.0 isn’t a class of application, just marketing slang to identify new technologies to help business get things done.  The vendors are going to start falling into Collaboration, WCM, WEM, or other buckets.  Some will be acquired and become part of a larger bucket.  The focus is going to shift from “Enterprise 2.0” and onto the actually problem being solved.
  4. Content Management in the Cloud will make a big splash.  This is a easy prediction.  We will hear of a massive success story, a  massive failure, or both.  That may seem wishy-washy, but what we hear will be directly related to how much people try to achieve in the Cloud.  The more complex the requirements, the more likely they will fail.  Those that are ready for everyday file-sharing will succeed.  Either way, I’m sure I’ll be writing a post at some point.  Maybe even one inspired by the decision by the GSA to use Google Apps.  We should hear some outcome next year.
  5. Peter Monks will try to blackmail me. I’m actually going to meet him in person next year.  I suspect he will try to get some sort of incriminating picture and use it as leverage.  He’ll probably try and make me say that WordPress is a CMS or something silly like that.
  6. An iPad challenger will emerge, driving the tablet market. We will see the emergence of a leading challenger to the iPad, which will be a great thing.  It will push innovation and make Apple have to push to maintain their early lead.  In the long-run, it will even lead to a significant price-drop in some tablet editions.  While I don’t expect to see significant price relief until 2012, the feature war will begin in earnest.  I expect it to be from an Android-based competitor, but RIM could surprise us (though I think they only get one chance).
  7. eBook weaknesses will come to the forefront.  This is going to get its own post later, but there are some issues to eBooks really taking off.  Lending capabilities don’t reflect what happens in real life and I there is a paradigm conflict that can be centered around the odds of people re-reading books.  I think that this will evolve and begin to be addressed.  I don’t think any of the issues I see are permanent, but if you want to replace physical books, they have to be addressed.

That’s it, just 7.  I can’t think of any others I want to put out there that aren’t obvious.  I highly suggest reading the 2011 predictions of Jon Marks, which I feel are the best set of predictions out there.  The Real Story Group and Lee Dallas also have some good ones for your enjoyment.

The best thing is that no matter what we think may happen, something really interesting will happen that will catch us all off guard.  That is why we are still in this industry.  There are always enough new twists and turns to keep everyone engaged.

So onward into 2011!

7 thoughts on “Predictions of Pie for 2011

    • SharePoint is a continuing trend. I don’t expect anything massive to happen that you could base a prediction around. Of course, that may be a prediction in itself.

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  1. Jon Lee says:

    “Organizations are going to realize that the Enterprise 2.0 isn’t a class of application, just marketing slang to identify new technologies to help business get things done.”

    I think some *minor* tech firms like IBM, Cisco, Salesforce.com, and Microsoft will disagree. They, as well as other key players, are betting on (and charging for) applications that will further define the concept of Enterprise 2.0–which equals collaboration tools + communication in one platform. E2.0 will redefine the internal landscape in a couple of ways, though it’s certainly going to take time.

    First: Internal Communications. E2.0 is a shift from centralized intranet with a small group of producers to a curated open space with stored information from all employees. This requires a new application set, since CMS’s alone can’t handle the depth of dynamic interaction in E2.0. Real-time and multi-party communications will shift to E2.0 where they can be prioritized more effectively. This shift will free up e-mail to be re-claimed for it’s best purpose: asynchronous private communications between 2 (or few) parties. And best of all, the open communication in E2.0 will be stored and tagged and associated with users, so it can be found later by anyone, even if content contributors are no longer with the company.

    Second: Cloud application aggregation. By taking the numerous cloud application currently employed by business units and aggregating them into one simple interface, E2.0 applications will make a simple one-stop shop for productivity, and weave it with social tools like microblogging, link sharing, and wikis/blogs. So E2.0 is not yet another stop on the way to being productive…it’s the only stop.

    Third: Project Management. Cross-functional teams will have the ability to work within a platform to achieve results. Community calendars + assigned tasks + document management + shared links + micro-blogging in one location will create a shared space to keep all parties engaged. And as a bonus, it’ll all be happening within the same platform as their other communications.

    The need for better behind-the-firewall communication is going to drive the E2.0 boom, and it’ll stay branded that way until someone comes up with a better name for the productivity party that is Social Enterprise.

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    • Jon, you say it yourself. You call the goals Collaboration, Communication, and Project Management. Cloud application aggregation is as much of a feature than just an application (though it can be bought as an app). The label will be around (because marketing is still marketing), but I seriously think that business are going to be looking at the applications from the “I need better internal collaboration” and look at the market from that angle. Same for project management or innovation. I think that people are going to stop saying “I need E2.0.” This is going to be a change that happens this year.

      Of course, if everyone agreed with me, it wouldn’t be much of a prediction. 🙂

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