Predictions of Pie for 2013


Last year, I didn’t write a prediction post. That is a shame because evaluating last year’s predictions is an easy post to write. Of course, that’s not why I write prediction posts. I usually write them to highlight other predictions that I feel are really good, really wrong, or just plain silly. I then mix in a few creative ideas and Bingo!, instant post.

So without further ado, here is what you can expect in 2013.

  1. There will be More Clouds in 2013: Inspired by Forbes’s prediction of More Hosted Private Clouds, I’m going to take it further and say that there will be more of all types of clouds in 2013, except maybe Cumulus.
  2. First Major On-Premises Traditional ECM Vendor will become Obsolete: I know, obvious right? Statistically speaking, one of those vendors will likely still be a market leader in 10 years. In 2013, we’ll see our next elimination for that spot (though they will be in denial). To make this easier to measure, I’ll name the contenders: EMC, IBM, Open Text, and Oracle. Microsoft falls into this category but it won’t be them, at least not in 2013.
  3. Big Data Falls from Grace: This is the combination of a couple items. The first is Moore’s Law which is making the line between traditional tools and Big Data tools occur further up the scale. Eventually only systems with millions of live inputs will need Big Data. What people are going to start doing is realizing that the real value is the Analysis that is performed on the data. The tools are just the means. What matters is being able to look at all that data with a critical mind.
  4. Facebook Will Have Serious Competition: This is just a matter of time. People are going to get tired of Facebook and start to look elsewhere. Likely it’ll start in the college ranks and move upwards through the interns. While it won’t be supplanted, real competition will be seen in the marketplace.
  5. My Secret Prediction Will Come True: I can’t tell you what it is, but it will happen. Trust me. When it happens and I point to it, you’ll know I was right.
  6. A New Cloud-Based Content Management Player Will Emerge: This isn’t just saying that a new vendor will startup. That happens everyday. By the end of the year, when talking about the leaders in the space, there will be a new name in the conversation.
  7. We Will Bicker Over Using “Social” as a Term: Let’s face it, “social” tools are nothing more than enhanced online collaboration. Collaboration still sounds old and “social” still sounds like goofing off to many business people. Regardless of what Deb Lavoy said in her predictions, this semantic chaos will not improve in 2013. The tools will still progress and gain a more established place in the business. Maybe in 2014 we’ll be happy with the terminology, maybe.
  8. Traditional Content/Document Management Vendors will be Forced to Acknowledge Challenge of Pure-Play Cloud Solutions: Many vendors are in denial that the pure-play vendors like Box are real threats. While that isn’t stopping them from adding file sharing features, they seem secure in their belief that they can win. In 2013, they are going to start losing enough deals to realize that they have a real fight on their hands. (I think Real Story Group got this one exactly right in their predictions)

Just eight of them. Why eight? Simple, because I couldn’t think of nine. I could get nitty gritty and make some prediction about Office 365 starting to gain real traction once migrating to Office 365 becomes smoother and Yammer is tied into it all.

Wait, was that a ninth prediction? Let’s see if it comes true before I decide.

5 thoughts on “Predictions of Pie for 2013

  1. #1 Agree. More Clouds, more confusion and even more people still believing that weather can affect cloud computing

    #2 Very bold. I just can’t see EMC, IBM, Open Text, Oracle or Microsoft becoming Obsolete in 2013. Maybe in the next few years but this is still big business for each of these companies

    #3 Disagree and agree. I don’t think just systems with millions of inputs will need Big Data, however, as you stated analyzing the data with a critical mind is important. It will be people that can do something meaningful with data that will be in high-demand and not just the tools

    #4 Hopefully. Facebook is losing it’s luster in spite of 1 billion users. They can’t find a decent way to monetize. There is always something newer, better and cooler coming along

    #5 OHHHH YES DO TELL!!!

    #6 Agree. The service has to be secure, scalable, easy to use and, obviously, support mission-critical Content Management type functionality such as a metadata framework. I think your #6 and #8 predictions are closely related 🙂

    #7 Oh vie. Social is good, collaboration is good but these services and capabilities scare C-Level’s to death. Let’s just create some cool new acronym that sounds old-school and trustworthy that the “C”‘s will accept

    #8 Absolutely agree. Most of the pure-play cloud solutions were smart and didn’t try and chase existing functionality, they are trying to leapfrog the traditional vendors with incredible innovation so the pure-play’s are in a good position moving-forward

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    • #2) Obsolete doesn’t mean losing money. It will take years for the full effect to be realized, but we’ll all see it as inevitable for one of them.

      Going to be an interesting year.

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