Is 2010 the Year of CMIS?
Yesterday, Fierce Content Management published an article that I wrote entitled The Future of CMIS. I discussed what I see as a very busy, and important, year for CMIS. It is a good article, at least on the Scale of Pie, and I am not going to be regurgitating it here for you.
Instead, I feel the need to clarify an inconsistency. In the article I stated [bold added]:
The past year was a good year for the proposed Content Management Interoperability Services (CMIS) standard. The specification was released for public review and efforts began to build an Open Source implementation of CMIS, Apache Chemistry. The next year promises to be even bigger…
I even proclaim that The future is now. That is all well and good, but there is one thing hanging over that statement. I predicted in my mandatory 2010 predictions post that:
2010 Will Not be the Year of CMIS
These statements appear to contradict each other. Now I could just say that my thinking has evolved and excuse myself that way, but I’m not. I’m sticking with both statements.
Tap Dancing to Two Tunes?
How do I resolve such a conflict? Simple. I’m going to play with grammar. 2009 was a big year for CMIS. Nobody can really deny that. 2010 will be a bigger year. CMIS will either show that it has what it takes to become an established standard or it will become a flash in the pan.
Either way, it will be a big year. But will it be the year of CMIS?
That is where the fun kicks into play. I see 2010 as a stepping stone to 2011, which I feel will be THE year. Only one year can be the biggest year, and I see that as 2011. That will be the year that more solutions will hit the market and CMIS will move past the early adopter stage.
It is kinda like how an actor can play a James Bond role, but there is only one who is the James Bond.
If all goes well, CMIS will cross the proverbial chasm and become mainstream by the end of 2010. That said, client interfaces, deployments, and case studies take time to develop. This will really hit its stride in 2011 when even the last repository holdouts will have to realize what is happening in the market and jump on board.
That will make 2011 the year of CMIS. 2010 is critical because it will lay the foundation for that success.
Or…CMIS could fail, making 2009 the year of CMIS, but I don’t see that happening. It is in our hands to educate the broader community and make sure that version 2.0 gets started in order to make sure that CMIS realizes its potential.