Comments on: Top Predictions For 2010

By: CMIS – what are the adoption plans for 2011? « MarkjOwen's Blog

CMIS – what are the adoption plans for 2011? « MarkjOwen's Blog — Tue, 07 Dec 2010 05:28:14 +0000

[...] blog post: Top Predictions For 2010, and Reflecting on Pie’s 2010 [...]

By: Reflecting on Pie’s 2010 Predictions « Word of Pie

Reflecting on Pie’s 2010 Predictions « Word of Pie — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 01:37:21 +0000

[...] Last year I succumbed to the pressure of being one of the only bloggers to NOT have predictions for 2010. So on the last day of the year, I threw together a post with some predictions. [...]

By: CMS förutsägelser för 2010 | Might Know Something Else

CMS förutsägelser för 2010 | Might Know Something Else — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 06:36:13 +0000

[...] Wordofpie har lämnat en av de mer intressanta punktslistorna med förutsägelser för året 2010. [...]

By: Is 2010 the Year of CMIS? « Word of Pie

Is 2010 the Year of CMIS? « Word of Pie — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 13:29:54 +0000

[...] and good, but there is one thing hanging over that statement. I predicted in my mandatory 2010 predictions post that: 2010 Will Not be the Year of [...]

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 23:22:51 +0000

Interesting predictions, and I have a few comments.

Quibble: SharePoint 2010 will matter (it already is mattering) big time. The adoption timeframe may slip out of this calendar year, so I’ll grant you a little leeway I thought I heard that SharePoint is MSFT’s fastest growing product ever (in terms of adoption, I’m assuming, not revenue). If true, it’s based on 2007, of course, and given the niceness of what I’ve seen of 2010–as well as the heavy MSFT push–we’re going to see it emerge as the home of the enterprise mashup.

Comment: Something has to happen for Google Wave to become more than a meh and much-talked about, but little-used, technology.

Comment: The e-reader thing is not about the hardware. The winner(s) will depend on which store (ie application) wins. Will the Apple store do the same for books as it did for music? Or will Amazon’s be able to turn its hardcopy leadership into bits? Too soon to tell. Personally, whoever gives me the ability to purchase books, rent books, borrow friends’ books, and check books out of the library will get my business. That’s what I do now, and that’s what I expect to do in the future, no matter the medium. I have enough competing for my attention that the lack of availability of any particular publisher or ‘content’ would never be a deal-breaker–just give me the flexibility of use I have today.

Comment: The sooner the cloud/fog hype cycle goes down, the better. The only thing more nauseating is the extent that ‘green’ continues to be bandied about. I take that back: the most nauseating thing would be a ‘green cloud’ (it’s probably been done and I’m just behind the times).

By: Nico

Nico — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 10:15:39 +0000

I don’t think that kindle will die that fast.
The tablets still don’t have enough energy for a longer time. But that will definatly change one time.

By: Pie

Pie — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 19:15:36 +0000

Some of the new Droid based tablets are looking cheap based on proposed pricing. That aside, I just think that there is room for SOMETHING new, be it a tablet or a new eReader from someone else.

By: Neil

Neil — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 16:00:30 +0000

I like the list. I don’t agree with the Kindle death though. Tablets have not caught on in the past, I am not sure why anyone things they will now. Plus even though the e-readers are expensive the tablets will be much more expensive.

By: Pie

Pie — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 03:08:41 +0000

I’ll concede that tablets may not kill the Nook and Kindle, eInk is nice. The main point is that something will kill them. As for battery life, most people only need 1-2 days of battery life. Charge the thing while you sleep. 8-10 hours is a little short for long travel days, but give me 18-20 hours and I’m there unless I live on international travel.

By: John Schember

John Schember — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 02:10:04 +0000

I don’t think tablets will be ebook reader killers like you believe they will be. Rather I’m of the mind that eInk technology will increase in capability. Tablets have the same issues that makes reading on a computer not feasible for everyone. Limited battery life, 8 – 10 hours is nothing compared to your typical ebook reader where you can read for 8 – 10 hours every day for two weeks. eInk also solves the issue of eye strain. It’s these issues that make ebook readers so attractive.

By: Pie

Pie — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 00:06:46 +0000

I think my key point isn’t that the current ones stink. It is that it is a young market. In the tech world, that almost always means that the ultimate winner is in the 2nd product wave. I think someone will release something that will blow by the eReaders out there. I’m not saying it will be Apple’s tablet. There are a few Android based ones starting to surface. It may not be a tablet at all.

The prediction isn’t just about features, capabilities, and whether or not I like them. I know I represent only a very small piece of the market. This is about technology trends and products over the past couple of decades.

Something will kill both products at some point. It is inevitable. Given the rate of tech advancement, I say this year. I could be wrong and it could be in 2011. History is on my side for it eventually happening.

BTW, that is an interesting article. The same approach could be used against eReaders. I disagree on both accounts, but let us remember one thing, nobody reading this thread, or the other one, represents the mass market, including you and I. We all trend towards early adoption, and not every early adopted device survives. Just ask the 8-track.

By: Mark

Mark — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 23:43:11 +0000

I'd suggest you get your hands on a B&N nook or at least try more than one eReader, live with it for a while, and then make that same statement. If you read a lot you will find that the device will grow on you. After a week you would be convinced - there would be no going back to DTBs. Still, as others on the MobileRead forum have said, it isn't fair to dismiss an entire device category simply because you don't get it. I recently read a great article on why the vaporware Apple table isn't needed. As you might have guessed, the author stirred up all kinds of trouble but I could not fault him for his argument. I can refute or agree with the entire thing or specific points since he had provided his reasoning behind his assessment and it was well thought out and not entirely based on personal opinion.

By: Pie

Pie — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 21:04:31 +0000

Well, an announcement from Google could change any of the predictions today. That is part of the fun. Not knowing how far Google has gotten on things behind the scenes is part of the beauty. That prediction could happen tomorrow, though I would wager against it. If it happened a month from now, I wouldn’t be that surprised. I’m waiting for the first good Wave UI NOT developed by Google. I only wish I had time to work on it myself.

By: Paul Holmes-Higgin

Paul Holmes-Higgin — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 19:39:13 +0000

Nice set of predictions. Obviously, I think CMIS could have more immediate impact, but I also think Google Wave might suddenly become interesting when it gets linked up with Google’s aspirations to compete against SharePoint. So, from a pure technology point of view I agree with your prediction, a few statements from Google could change all that.

By: Pie

Pie — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 17:53:55 +0000

As an early adopter on the Application side, you will benefit. Your success will pave the way for 2011 when more people climb on board. I think 2011 will be the year where the market/business world starts to use CMIS widely.

To be honest, the sooner it happens, the happier I will be. Wouldn’t mind missing on the CMIS prediction if it explodes in 2010.