Top Predictions For 2010


Everyone seems to be making a looking back post and/or a predictions post.  I thought I would throw one against the wall and see if it stuck.

Enjoy…

  1. Constantly Hyping Acronyms Of Systems: (Inspired by Peter Monks) WCM is suffering.  It doesn’t really cover mobile platforms well and there are big differences in the presentation and the management of the landscape.  Let’s create Mobile Content Management (MCM), Enterprise Information Management (EIM), Omnipresent Content Management (OCM), Content Production Systems (CPS), Apple Content Management (ACM), and a few more.  Now that the market has the concept of ECM, lets muddy the waters some.
  2. SharePoint 2010 Won’t Matter: Got your attention?  SP 2007 was a big hit.  It has made a lot of headway, so much so that people are still trying to get a handle on their environments in many cases.  This makes upgrades more daunting.  I suspect that many will wait until SP1 is released and some best practices are out before taking the plunge.  It will put a lot of pressure on ECM vendors, but that is it.
  3. 2010 Will Not be the Year of CMIS: Another shocker, at least from me.  I see a lot of vendor support, but as Lee Dallas mentioned in the comments of his predictions, there needs to be application vendor adoption to really create impact.  CMIS will continue to advance and make gains, but I see 2011 being the big year for CMIS adoption ACROSS the industry.
  4. Google Wave Gets More Hype: (Inspired by Ron Miller) The second version will be released and invites will become plentiful, but nobody will know want to do with it on an ongoing basis.  This will be solved when someone builds a better interface and people can then use it outside of the browser.  That will happen at the end of the year.
  5. Records Management and Enterprise 2.0 Will Collide: (Inspired by CMS Watch) Somebody will get in trouble for something on an “Enterprise 2.0″ platform and it will make the headlines.  A mad scramble will result from vendors saying how they can solve the problem.  Of course, you and I know that a little thought would prevent this from happening, but that thought won’t occur until 2011.
  6. The Kindle and Nook Will Die: I hope you saved your receipt.  Tablets are coming.  Why get a Kindle or any other option when a tablet will knock them dead?  I think that will be next year’s big gift and people will regret jumping into the digital reader water quite so fast.
  7. The Cloud will Remain a Fog: (Inspired by John Newton)I see a lot of down-hype here.  People will still move towards using the cloud, but it will be heavy on the smaller instances.  I see a lot of people looking at creating private clouds and moving applications there.  That takes time, but the move will continue to build those private clouds.  The question, will those clouds get built before the public clouds hit five 9s of performance and create ways to get your information out of the cloud?
  8. Open Text will Make a Major Acquisition: Everyone needs a gimmee prediction to keep their average up.

That’s it.  I’d write more, but I have a party to get to in a few minutes.

Happy New Year!!!

(PS> Check Marko‘s prediction post as well.)

29 thoughts on “Top Predictions For 2010

  1. Hi Lawrence,

    Good predictions ;-) I like specially the Mobile applications one. I have to tell you that I don’t like Mobile Content Management (MCM) because I think that a mobile based content management will not have sense by itself and there is no need to continue inventing more terms. Anyway, I loved your post about Omnipresent Content Management, becase this term has plenty of meaning and references clearly the technologies that let us access content not only from computers, but the main meaning is the ability of taking the content from any place and from any source.

    We are working on mobile technologies to access the content, and to make more real the OCM ;-) So I will be very happy if the prediction of growing of OCM becomes real. Won’t you include this to your predictions ? ;-)

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    • OCM is a prediction for another year. This decade I think I could go with, but we won’t get there in 2010.

      Oh, and I hope we don’t get MCM. If I have to start teaching one more acronym to clients I may have to let them shoot me.

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  2. Unfortunately I think SharePoint 2010 will matter, because it is soooo much better than MOSS 2007 in some very important areas, such as metadata management, I for one am pushing early adoption within my company because if its get the base product with the new features built in, OR buy third party add on’s to get the features added to MOSS 2007.

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    • And we will take your lessons learned and use them for our upgrades. I just think that the percentage of SP2007 installs will be much higher than SP2010 by the end of the year. In 2011, I see lots of upgrades.

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      • I kinda agree with both of you, yes MOSS 2010 will be big but I think 2007 will probably be the bigger of the two this year. Where SharePoint 2010 is likely to have an impact is in delaying customers going to the market, if they can. The Records Management and Metadata functionality in SharePoint 2010 look so compelling that customers may wish to wait to see how use of it beds in before committing, if not taking the leap themselves.

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  3. Thanks for the very interesting predictions for 2010.

    But I strongly believe that 2010 will be the year of CMIS!
    My prediction is that shortly after the public release we’ll find the questions for CMIS-support in almost every RFP. This will put a lot of pressure not only to the traditional ECM vendors but also to application vendors. Of course the smaller application companies will be most flexible and will take the technological lead regarding CMIS-adoption. I also expect some new companies arising specialized in CMIS-based applications like WeWebU Software (my own company) does.

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    • We’ll see the requirement, but I’m not sold on seeing the usage of CMIS in 2010. Repository vendor support will give us what is needed to make 2011 the year we start using CMIS. Things will keep moving forward, and great progress will be made, but I just think it will take time.

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      • It will be very interesting to see who is right on this. What I can definitely say is that our OpenWorkdesk suite of applications will be ready to integrate with Alfresco via CMIS during the next months. This will enable Alfresco and other CMIS-compliant repositories as an alternative for transactional content processing applications even in the first half of 2010. We see huge interest in this kind of CMIS-based integration so I expect some success till end of year. But maybe this is just the view of an early adopter of CMIS and not the right view on the whole market?

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      • As an early adopter on the Application side, you will benefit. Your success will pave the way for 2011 when more people climb on board. I think 2011 will be the year where the market/business world starts to use CMIS widely.

        To be honest, the sooner it happens, the happier I will be. Wouldn’t mind missing on the CMIS prediction if it explodes in 2010.

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  4. Mark says:

    I would have never guessed that you would be so clueless about eReaders. In fact, your position on this has made me stop and reconsider the wisdom of your other predictions. People who buy eReaders don’t want to read on a tablet, or have a touchscreen, or even a color screen.

    Get over the idea of convergence. Not every device created has to be a jack of all trades. I want a device that simulates the reading experience of a book very well, and nothing more, and I want it at a fair price. Apple cannot do this with a vaporware tablet device. Even if they could I wouldn’t buy an Apple anything. I have principles.

    Also see:

    http://gadgetmule.wordpress.com/2009/12/11/e-reader-apologetics/

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    • Mark, thanks for sharing the link. It is a great post. Maybe the tablet won’t be the replacement (until I actually hold one I can’t judge), but I’ll stick with the basic prediction. I got to play with a Kindle over the holidays, hated it. It wasn’t easy to figure out without guidance or reading directions. I liked the contrast of the display, but it was small. Overall, I was not impressed. The Kindle seems to clearly represent an early generation product that will be replaced. It was nice that they seemed to get the display part solved, which was a major issue over the years, but it has several steps to proceed from a usability perspective. Given the rate of technical advancement these days, I would say this is the year the replacement will arrive.

      When it comes to reading large hardbacks, the Kindle wins. For paperbacks, not as much. This isn’t about convergence for me. I see cost issues and people wanting to justify the cost to themselves. Someone will design a better, more functional, and less expensive option this year. As with all tech, it isn’t set in stone. Shoot, maybe Amazon does it. I’m just saying that the bar is low and there will be a lot of flux.

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      • Mark says:

        I’d suggest you get your hands on a B&N nook or at least try more than one eReader, live with it for a while, and then make that same statement. If you read a lot you will find that the device will grow on you. After a week you would be convinced – there would be no going back to DTBs. Still, as others on the MobileRead forum have said, it isn’t fair to dismiss an entire device category simply because you don’t get it.

        I recently read a great article on why the vaporware Apple table isn’t needed. As you might have guessed, the author stirred up all kinds of trouble but I could not fault him for his argument. I can refute or agree with the entire thing or specific points since he had provided his reasoning behind his assessment and it was well thought out and not entirely based on personal opinion.

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      • I think my key point isn’t that the current ones stink. It is that it is a young market. In the tech world, that almost always means that the ultimate winner is in the 2nd product wave. I think someone will release something that will blow by the eReaders out there. I’m not saying it will be Apple’s tablet. There are a few Android based ones starting to surface. It may not be a tablet at all.

        The prediction isn’t just about features, capabilities, and whether or not I like them. I know I represent only a very small piece of the market. This is about technology trends and products over the past couple of decades.

        Something will kill both products at some point. It is inevitable. Given the rate of tech advancement, I say this year. I could be wrong and it could be in 2011. History is on my side for it eventually happening.

        BTW, that is an interesting article. The same approach could be used against eReaders. I disagree on both accounts, but let us remember one thing, nobody reading this thread, or the other one, represents the mass market, including you and I. We all trend towards early adoption, and not every early adopted device survives. Just ask the 8-track.

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  5. the eReader question is a reasonable debate – I don’t think it will be the tablet that kills it but the price point. they are too @#%@#^ expensive for what they do IMHO. I am not in love with the idea of a tablet either. Mainly because I know I am destined to put a leaky coffee mug on one and kill it. Convergence works in both directions and you’ll see these things become more feature laden as they look to justify the cost and give all of us gearheads the same buyers remorse for not waiting for the next version.

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  6. I have apparently been classified as ignorant, though that isn’t the term used, because I don’t think the Nook/Kindle will survive the year. You can read it, and my defense, here:

    http://www.mobileread.com/forums/showthread.php?t=68230

    Important notes:

    – I’ve tried the Kindle
    – I own, and have read, thousands of books
    – I read almost every night before going to sleep

    These are just products that early adopters will buy, or have bought, and they will be happy. My mother is happy with hers. I just think that the market will replace them both this year with better products. I suggested the tablet because I think it will come out finally and if Apple does it, it will be a great product. Doesn’t mean I’ll buy it, but people will.

    I’ve been waiting for a good eReader for over a decade. I’m still waiting.

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  7. Nice set of predictions. Obviously, I think CMIS could have more immediate impact, but I also think Google Wave might suddenly become interesting when it gets linked up with Google’s aspirations to compete against SharePoint. So, from a pure technology point of view I agree with your prediction, a few statements from Google could change all that.

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    • Well, an announcement from Google could change any of the predictions today. That is part of the fun. Not knowing how far Google has gotten on things behind the scenes is part of the beauty. That prediction could happen tomorrow, though I would wager against it. If it happened a month from now, I wouldn’t be that surprised. I’m waiting for the first good Wave UI NOT developed by Google. I only wish I had time to work on it myself.

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  8. I don’t think tablets will be ebook reader killers like you believe they will be. Rather I’m of the mind that eInk technology will increase in capability. Tablets have the same issues that makes reading on a computer not feasible for everyone. Limited battery life, 8 – 10 hours is nothing compared to your typical ebook reader where you can read for 8 – 10 hours every day for two weeks. eInk also solves the issue of eye strain. It’s these issues that make ebook readers so attractive.

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    • I’ll concede that tablets may not kill the Nook and Kindle, eInk is nice. The main point is that something will kill them. As for battery life, most people only need 1-2 days of battery life. Charge the thing while you sleep. 8-10 hours is a little short for long travel days, but give me 18-20 hours and I’m there unless I live on international travel.

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  9. Neil says:

    I like the list. I don’t agree with the Kindle death though. Tablets have not caught on in the past, I am not sure why anyone things they will now. Plus even though the e-readers are expensive the tablets will be much more expensive.

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    • Some of the new Droid based tablets are looking cheap based on proposed pricing. That aside, I just think that there is room for SOMETHING new, be it a tablet or a new eReader from someone else.

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  10. I don’t think that kindle will die that fast.
    The tablets still don’t have enough energy for a longer time. But that will definatly change one time.

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  11. Chris says:

    Interesting predictions, and I have a few comments.

    Quibble: SharePoint 2010 will matter (it already is mattering) big time. The adoption timeframe may slip out of this calendar year, so I’ll grant you a little leeway ;) I thought I heard that SharePoint is MSFT’s fastest growing product ever (in terms of adoption, I’m assuming, not revenue). If true, it’s based on 2007, of course, and given the niceness of what I’ve seen of 2010–as well as the heavy MSFT push–we’re going to see it emerge as the home of the enterprise mashup.

    Comment: Something has to happen for Google Wave to become more than a meh and much-talked about, but little-used, technology.

    Comment: The e-reader thing is not about the hardware. The winner(s) will depend on which store (ie application) wins. Will the Apple store do the same for books as it did for music? Or will Amazon’s be able to turn its hardcopy leadership into bits? Too soon to tell. Personally, whoever gives me the ability to purchase books, rent books, borrow friends’ books, and check books out of the library will get my business. That’s what I do now, and that’s what I expect to do in the future, no matter the medium. I have enough competing for my attention that the lack of availability of any particular publisher or ‘content’ would never be a deal-breaker–just give me the flexibility of use I have today.

    Comment: The sooner the cloud/fog hype cycle goes down, the better. The only thing more nauseating is the extent that ‘green’ continues to be bandied about. I take that back: the most nauseating thing would be a ‘green cloud’ (it’s probably been done and I’m just behind the times).

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